Ag Thoughts

There is a bit of opportunity at present in my opinion. The market presents opportunities at times that need to be seized. As we have seen a roller coaster over the last couple years from profit to loss quickly in the Ag sector. I believe the lower end of prices for both beans and corn have moved up from a macro sense. It is my belief we could put a high in within the next two weeks. The fundamentals IMO support a move in nov to the 955-965 level potentially. That would be an opportunity to sell both old and new crop soy. The corn IMO can move to 412 level basis dec. Like the soy, these levels present opportunity to make sales. The domestic balance sheet has moved to a more historic carry level. This has helped pull the lower end of the ranges up. What can limit the upside a bit is the large global numbers. There is stiff competition on the horizon. It should be said, however, that any major weather concerns, or a rebalancing of the Chinese corn stocks have the ability to turn the markets for the positive. The markets at present await confirmation of some new Chinese purchases. This could be the catalyst for the next opportunity. A sleeper here remains bean oil, in my opinion. The long term fundamentals could spell much higher prices. As always these are thoughts. It is essential to quantify your risk. The most important part of a successful strategy is understanding the risk.

Be Well,

John Walsh, President Walsh Trading